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Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bank Cards: Everything is at Risk.
Modern encryption still holds up reliably, but its security margin no longer seems so robust. New calculations and experiments show that quantum computers can crack conventional security systems significantly earlier than was thought just a few years ago.
Today, data is protected by mathematical problems that conventional computers take a long time to solve. For example, factoring a large number into prime factors is the basis of RSA encryption . Even powerful supercomputers can't solve such a problem in a reasonable amount of time, so banking transactions, correspondence, and cloud services remain relatively secure.
Quantum computers work differently. Instead of conventional bits, they use qubits, which can exist in multiple states at once. This allows some calculations to be performed significantly faster. This is bad news for cryptography: problems that seem insurmountable for classical machines become solvable for quantum systems.
Developments are proceeding in two directions simultaneously. Engineers are increasing the size of quantum systems and attempting to combine more qubits into a single computing circuit. For example, IBM has unveiled a 120-qubit chip and expects to demonstrate the practical advantages of quantum computing in specific tasks in the near future. By 2029, the company hopes to create a robust system with error correction suitable for long-term calculations.
At the same time, hacking methods themselves are changing. Back in 1994, mathematician Peter Shor demonstrated an algorithm that allows a quantum computer to quickly factor large numbers. This approach directly threatens RSA and other common schemes. For a long time, it was believed that a real attack would require millions of qubits, so the threat was relegated to the distant future.
Recent studies have revised these estimates. A study by the Google Quantum AI team, published in 2026, found that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could be sufficient to attack elliptic curve systems. Such systems underlie cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum and are also used in secure communication protocols. With sufficient power, a quantum computer could crack a key in minutes.
This value is still far from current capabilities, but the gap has narrowed by approximately tenfold compared to previous estimates. Another study , prepared by researchers from Caltech and Berkeley, shows that Shor's algorithm can be implemented on a system with 10,000–20,000 atomic qubits. In one proposed architecture, a setup with approximately 26,000 qubits could crack Bitcoin's security in a few days. More complex keys, such as 2048-bit RSA, would require more time, but the theoretical feasibility is already being calculated.
These results change the balance. Previously, the emphasis was on increasing the number of qubits, but now it's becoming clear that optimizing algorithms and architecture can reduce hardware requirements. Even without giant quantum machines, the effectiveness of attacks is gradually increasing.
Regulators and standards organizations are already setting deadlines for the transition to new security methods. In the US, the National Institute of Standards and Technology proposes completing the phase-out of vulnerable algorithms by 2035. In Australia, they recommend starting preparations now and transitioning to quantum-resistant circuits by 2030.
Defenses exist. NIST has already validated several post-quantum cryptography algorithms that should withstand attacks using quantum computing. Major companies have begun implementing them in hybrid mode. For example, Google Chrome and Cloudflare are testing support for the new algorithms in network protocols and services.
Systems based on elliptic curves will require special attention. These include cryptocurrencies, blockchains, and many traffic encryption protocols. New assessments clearly point to the need for such systems to transition to post-quantum circuits, otherwise they will be the first to become vulnerable.
A sudden security collapse isn't expected. Current quantum computers aren't yet capable of implementing the attacks described. But the direction of development has become clear: each new work narrows the gap between theory and practice. Progress is occurring simultaneously in hardware and algorithms, and both factors are accelerating the time when old security methods will no longer work.
So, it's too late to expect a powerful quantum computer. The transition to quantum-resistant cryptography needs to be planned in advance, while current systems still operate reliably.
Modern encryption still holds up reliably, but its security margin no longer seems so robust. New calculations and experiments show that quantum computers can crack conventional security systems significantly earlier than was thought just a few years ago.
Today, data is protected by mathematical problems that conventional computers take a long time to solve. For example, factoring a large number into prime factors is the basis of RSA encryption . Even powerful supercomputers can't solve such a problem in a reasonable amount of time, so banking transactions, correspondence, and cloud services remain relatively secure.
Quantum computers work differently. Instead of conventional bits, they use qubits, which can exist in multiple states at once. This allows some calculations to be performed significantly faster. This is bad news for cryptography: problems that seem insurmountable for classical machines become solvable for quantum systems.
Developments are proceeding in two directions simultaneously. Engineers are increasing the size of quantum systems and attempting to combine more qubits into a single computing circuit. For example, IBM has unveiled a 120-qubit chip and expects to demonstrate the practical advantages of quantum computing in specific tasks in the near future. By 2029, the company hopes to create a robust system with error correction suitable for long-term calculations.
At the same time, hacking methods themselves are changing. Back in 1994, mathematician Peter Shor demonstrated an algorithm that allows a quantum computer to quickly factor large numbers. This approach directly threatens RSA and other common schemes. For a long time, it was believed that a real attack would require millions of qubits, so the threat was relegated to the distant future.
Recent studies have revised these estimates. A study by the Google Quantum AI team, published in 2026, found that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could be sufficient to attack elliptic curve systems. Such systems underlie cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum and are also used in secure communication protocols. With sufficient power, a quantum computer could crack a key in minutes.
This value is still far from current capabilities, but the gap has narrowed by approximately tenfold compared to previous estimates. Another study , prepared by researchers from Caltech and Berkeley, shows that Shor's algorithm can be implemented on a system with 10,000–20,000 atomic qubits. In one proposed architecture, a setup with approximately 26,000 qubits could crack Bitcoin's security in a few days. More complex keys, such as 2048-bit RSA, would require more time, but the theoretical feasibility is already being calculated.
These results change the balance. Previously, the emphasis was on increasing the number of qubits, but now it's becoming clear that optimizing algorithms and architecture can reduce hardware requirements. Even without giant quantum machines, the effectiveness of attacks is gradually increasing.
Regulators and standards organizations are already setting deadlines for the transition to new security methods. In the US, the National Institute of Standards and Technology proposes completing the phase-out of vulnerable algorithms by 2035. In Australia, they recommend starting preparations now and transitioning to quantum-resistant circuits by 2030.
Defenses exist. NIST has already validated several post-quantum cryptography algorithms that should withstand attacks using quantum computing. Major companies have begun implementing them in hybrid mode. For example, Google Chrome and Cloudflare are testing support for the new algorithms in network protocols and services.
Systems based on elliptic curves will require special attention. These include cryptocurrencies, blockchains, and many traffic encryption protocols. New assessments clearly point to the need for such systems to transition to post-quantum circuits, otherwise they will be the first to become vulnerable.
A sudden security collapse isn't expected. Current quantum computers aren't yet capable of implementing the attacks described. But the direction of development has become clear: each new work narrows the gap between theory and practice. Progress is occurring simultaneously in hardware and algorithms, and both factors are accelerating the time when old security methods will no longer work.
So, it's too late to expect a powerful quantum computer. The transition to quantum-resistant cryptography needs to be planned in advance, while current systems still operate reliably.
